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Off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey, as well special elections in Texas, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Mississippi, have yielded wins for Democrats. (swingleft.org/strategy).

In addition, major forecasters show Democrats leading the generic ballot going into the midterms: the New York Times’ polling showed a seven-point margin in mid-May, and several other aggregate trackers show Democrats ahead by even higher margins including Economist/YouGov (+11), Echelon Insights (+8), NPR/PBS Marist (+10) and the Financial Times (+8). But polling experts caution these figures are snapshots of national sentiment rather than exact predictors of seat outcomes. (washingtonmonthly.com)

While a modest advantage in the national ballot is promising, it may not translate directly into House control by the Democrats: the U.S. House is decided district-by-district, and factors such as incumbency, geographic concentration of votes, and redistricting can blunt the impact of a national popular‑vote lead. Recent legal and map changes in several states and the Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais are expected to dilute the voting power of minorities and complicate the electorate’s map, potentially reducing the number of seats that swing, even if Democrats win the national vote by a few points. Analysts point to these structural effects as a reason for caution when translating a national generic‑ballot lead into seat projections. (brookings.edu)

The bottom line

Multiple major polling aggregates show Democrats with a modest national edge on the generic ballot, but structural factors mean that a national lead of this size is not a guaranteed predictor of how many House seats will change hands.

To turn the tide, Democrats must go after more than open congressional seats. “It’s about winning governorships, state legislatures, and other key state-level offices that will shape the next decade of redistricting and democratic representation,” Swing Left reported.

Background

Operation Midway Blitz was a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) enforcement action launched on September 8, 2025. The operation targeted “criminal illegal aliens” in Chicago and surrounding Illinois areas, continuing through the fall of 2025 with significant, ongoing activity reported through at least December.

Key details:

• Purpose: Target undocumented immigrants with criminal records in response to Illinois sanctuary policies.

• Location: Primary focused in and around Chicago.

• Impact: Over 3,000 arrests were reported by mid-November 2025, with major raids, protests and increased federal presence in the area.

Why the delay matters

Defense lawyers and community advocates argue a special prosecutor is needed to ensure impartiality and to investigate alleged ICE abuses connected to the operation; prosecutors counter that existing county offices can address conflicts without appointing outside counsel (Block Club Chicago, May 11; NBC Chicago, May 11). The judge set a new hearing for May 21 to consider the motion, giving parties time to file additional briefs and prepare arguments (Axios, May 11).

The delay keeps open questions about prosecutorial leadership, coordination between federal and local authorities, and public confidence in handling politically sensitive investigations—outcomes that advocates say could shape oversight of immigration-related enforcement going forward (Block Club Chicago, May 11; Chicago Sun-Times, May 11).

Support Immigrant-Owned Businesses in Ravenswood

Update (2026-05-19): The pilot of this event was successful. Keep your eyes peeled and appetite ready for the next event!

The Greater Ravenswood Chamber of Commerce, Indivisible Lincoln Square, and the Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce are teaming up to spotlight our Latin immigrant-owned restaurants! We believe this is a critical time to support these community members, so we’re inviting neighbors to “dine in solidarity.”

Throughout 2026, GRCC will highlight local immigrant-owned restaurants on their social media and in their weekly newsletter, as well as through strategic partnerships with other community organizations. The goal is to encourage Chicagoans to explore Ravenswood and enjoy some amazing meals while driving sales to businesses who most need our support.

From May 15-17, spend at least $25 (pre-tax/tip) at one of these featured restaurants and submit your receipt for a chance to win $50 in gift cards to other excellent immigrant-owned restaurants around Ravenswood. For more details go to Ravenswood’s Chamber of Commerce site.

When: Any time, but “Spotlight on Lawrence Ave. Weekend” is May 15-17

Where: Spotlight on Lawrence restaurants include:

• Falcon’s Handcrafted Sandwiches | 1968 W. Lawrence Ave
• Pollo Express | 1967 W. Lawrence
• Taqueria Primo Chuki’s | 1708 W. Lawrence

Operation Midway Blitz, a federal immigration enforcement operation conducted in Chicago last fall, had a wide-reaching impact across Chicago. Federal agents conducted enforcement actions in neighborhoods across Chicago and its suburbs, affecting workplaces, families, and entire communities. In the months since, residents, advocates, and local officials have raised concerns about the scale of the operation and the conduct of agents involved.

A coalition of elected officials, community organizations, and attorneys has asked “Cook County Circuit Court to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate alleged crimes committed by federal agents during the operation. They argue that, despite extensive evidence, including sworn statements, video footage, and documented incidents, no criminal charges have been filed.

How can you help? This form supports ongoing legal efforts by helping attorneys understand how many individuals reported being victims of crimes allegedly committed by federal agents during the operation. If you were harmed during Operation Midway Blitz, or know someone who was, and a report was made to a local police department, through a citizen complaint process, or by other means, we ask that you complete the form.

Your submission helps ensure these incidents are formally documented and considered as part of broader efforts to ensure accountability.

Indivisible Lincoln Square is proud to announce that our steering committee has unanimously endorsed the Fossil Fuel Divestment Act currently under consideration in Springfield. This legislation would require Illinois to divest public funds from fossil fuel companies and reinvest in clean energy, sustainable infrastructure, and community-centered climate solutions. We support the Act because it aligns with our commitment to climate justice, protects Illinois taxpayers from long-term financial risks associated with the fossil fuel industry, and accelerates the transition to a low-carbon economy that creates local jobs and healthier neighborhoods.

Passage of the Fossil Fuel Divestment Act would:

• Remove state investment support from companies driving climate change and pollution;
• Shift capital toward renewable energy, energy efficiency and green workforce development;
• Reduce financial exposure to stranded-asset risk as the global economy decarbonizes;
• Signal Illinois’ leadership on climate policy and justice, encouraging other states and institutions to follow.

Next steps:

We encourage members to contact their state representatives and senators to express support—personal stories about how climate change affects our community are especially powerful.

Indivisible Lincoln Square will continue to monitor the bill’s progress, mobilize our membership, and partner with allied climate and justice organizations such as 350 Chicago, an organizing member of the Climate Safe Pensions Illinois, to push for swift passage. If you’d like to get involved, contact us through our website to join advocacy efforts, volunteer for outreach, or participate in lobby days. Together we can help secure a cleaner, safer future for Illinois.

Block Club Chicago reported an estimated 200,000 attendees in Chicago, filling a mile of downtown streets end-to-end, while NBC Chicago noted the protests were one of more than 3,100 “No Kings” events planned nationwide.

At Butler Field, the Petrillo Music Shell bore messages reading “Abolish ICE,” “Chicago Says ‘No Kings,’” and “Build Democracy.” The program included a performance by Melody Angel and speeches from organizers and elected officials, including Mayor Brandon Johnson, who voiced support for a May 1 national day of action for workers.

Marchers condemned the war with Iran and U.S. alliances in the region, raised issues from trans health care access to presidential ties with Jeffrey Epstein, and carried banners such as “No War on Iran” as they passed Trump Tower and returned to Butler Field.

Protesters gather in Chicago at the “No Kings” rally on March 28

Read more about the “No Kings Protests”:

See the scenes of “No Kings” around Chicago—NBC 5

“No Kings rally and march floods downtown—Block Club Chicago

Thousands rally, March in Chicago—WTTW

Tell the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency not to weaken community protections against chemical emergencies!

The EPA put long-needed health and safety protections in place based on the law and science in 2024 to save lives and prevent chemical emergencies. Now the Trump administration wants to take our country backward on safety.

Proposed rule Common Sense Approach to Chemical Accident Prevention (Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OLEM-2025-0313), rolls back safeguards and cuts the public out of decisions.

Read testimony by Darya Minovi, Union of Concerned Scientists.

Use the Earthjustice Link to make your voice heard and send a message to the EPA. The comment period closes April 10.

Volunteer for the No Kings rally on March 28

Volunteer roles needed:

Setup, clean up (tents, stage, trash cans, etc.); distribute rally signs and flyers; roam the field to answer questions; carry signs, banners or flags; work the volunteer tent; lead chants and more.

Email Jason Rieger and Trish Gyorey, rally and march coordinators: jason@indivisiblechicago.com or trish@indivisiblegwlchi.org

Sign up here

Note: Volunteers will meet on a Zoom call about a week ahead of the event that will include safety and deescalation training. Details to be provided following sign up.

Why ILS backs these candidates

Drake Warren is an engineer and housing advocate who is deeply connected to his community. He believes the role of Cook County Commissioner should be a full-time job that serves the people of the county, not big corporations, and we fervently agree.

James O’Brien is in a competitive race for 13th District State Representative. An attorney with a proven track record in education funding and climate law, among other progressive issues, we believe he has the experience needed to hit the ground running and make Springfield work for us.

Nick Uniejewski, running for 6th District State Senator, is a community organizer committed to bold, forward-thinking policies rooted in equity, justice, and care for our neighbors. We’re backing Nick because we believe state government should be more connected and accountable to voters. Nick will bring a breath of fresh air to the district.

Fritz Kaegi has been working tirelessly as Cook County Assessor to reform a corrupt property tax system—shifting the tax burden away from homeowners and making corporations pay their fair share. With the Cook County Board of Review already under the influence of big real estate and property tax attorneys, we cannot afford to cede control of the Assessor’s office.

Please remember to vote on March 17.

Abundant Housing Illinois is a volunteer-led organization advocating for abundant housing and sustainable, inclusive cities throughout Illinois.

Read about the panelists:

Steven Vance is a Co-Lead for Abundant Housing Illinois, focusing on policy for the group’s city and state campaigns. He’s an urban planner, makes a lot of maps, and runs a business called Chicago Cityscape.

Sedona Jolly is an Initiative Lead at Strong Towns Chicago focusing on urbanist education. She is an Urban Economics research assistant studying the impact of data centers on water justice.

Nathan Sheskey is a Co-Lead for Abundant Housing Illinois, focusing on community outreach and coalition partnerships. He is a chemist.

Time: Wednesday, March 4, 7-8 pm CST
Location: Virtual. Join from anywhere
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